The weak economy

International
The commercial bonds between The States and Mexico
The weak economy
By: Carlos Damián August 2, 2012
The factory of government speeches
México. – Against the grain of the refrain that we are the eighth marvel of the world, it is the Mexican economy that the government from Mexico diffuses, the indicators confirm us the weakness that in such a way the nation reports, what is not in fact translated in well-being for the population. After the electoral process, to the traditional economic decline it sinks the slow behavior in the neighbor of the bars and the stars, and the road full with thorns in that Europe is, what rebounds in form interns and it causes alert signs for all, this doesn't affect in any way to the factory of speeches of the government's fantasies.

On purpose, for the road we are that the Center of Studies of the Public Finances of the Chamber of Deputies considers that the economy “is ambush” for the scarce external demand, the weakness in the shipment of remittances, the weak circumstance that is observed in the labor market, at the bottom in the revenues of the families that are translated in minimum consumptions, and the “possibility of a weakly of the peso", this is translated if, “our currency will continue only strengthening if it decreases the uncertainty in the international financial markets", according to the meeting of government of the Bank of Mexico, however it is a given not very probable scenario the worsening of the problems of the Eurus area.

The meeting of government of the Central Bank in Mexico indicates that the CEFP, notices about “the damage that has suffered the balance of risks for the growth, so much of the world economy as of our country". For the case of The States the pressures come from the moderation in the rhythm of growth of the industrial production and of the main components of the added demand, as well as for the consolidation lack in the recovery of the employment and the uncertainty about the size of the fiscal adjustment that would be applied in 2013. As for Mexico it is observed, their setback determined by discharges high and low of a world economy that it impacts in the Mexican economy, and the internal demand of consumption has descended lightly, although it is supposed that it is favorable.

The margin of Mexican maneuver inserts in the world crisis, it is very dependent of the American economy, although the government with his factory of speeches doesn't say "that is armored", and “it doesn't happen anything." In what concerns to the employment it is noticed that, from the beginning of the stage of economic "recovery” the unemployment rate has stayed in near levels to 5 percent. This means that due to the economic behavior of the crisis it has not been translated in new work positions for those that have entered for the first time to the labor market, and for those Mexicans that have lost their employment.

Certainly in the sixth month of the 2012, more than 400 thousand they incorporated to the labor market, but 91 thousand 564 people (23%) they were able to be used, quoting in the IMSS. For what the rate in the informal sector was located by 29.72 percent, the highest since the measuring of the indicator began. Also when having manpower oversupply, the sub-occupation grew more, when being located by 9.32 percent, the highest from 2010. Finally it is foregone that in the face of a possible deceleration of the industrial production in The States is affected to the work demand in the Mexican factories and with it to the generation of formal employ. This labor circumstance can impact in low wages and in bigger precariousness of the work market.

For that it makes to the internal consumption, the CEFP shows us that in May, the sales of the commercial establishments to the wholesale lost dynamism when being increased 3.61 percent after having increased 4.77 percent in the same month of 2011. The sales to the retail that they reflect the behavior of the internal consumption; they blunted 5.17 percent, after having only made it 0.97 percent in May of one year behind. However, the index of sales retailers stays below the maxima observed before the crisis. The annual growth of the sales to the retail in May was for under 5.4 percent advanced by the analysts, although for up of 4.3 percent waited by a group of specialists.

Under the analysis of short term, with adjusted figures to the stationary, another panorama was observed. The sales in the commercial establishments to the wholesale reduced their impulse, when spending of an increment of 0.37 percent in April to 0.1 percent in May. As long as the sales to the retail deteriorated when falling 0.22 percent, when a month before they had increased 0.92 percent. The employment improved in the establishments wholesalers and retailers. In the first ones it increased 0.3 percent and in the second 0.03 percent. The remunerations real average reported a mixed movement. In the first type of establishments they stayed in negative land when falling 0.98 percent (in April), and they decreased 0.08 percent, while in those of retail they lost dynamism, expanding by 0.64 percent after the increase of 0.93 percent of April.

The Mexicans wonder in case the Trife, decide to invalidate the presidential election they -have more than enough the reasons among them the money of suspicious origin that moved as an alluvium -, the Congress will have to designate an interim one, for fortune Calderon won't be able to extend its six years. It is foreseen in the Constitution, and without inventing anything we have to: Ramon de la Fuente, Cuauhtemoc Cardenas, Genaro Gongora (former minister of the SCJN), Manlio Fabio Beltrones, Juan Silva Meza (president of the Supreme Court). (La Jornada, economia, p.p. 6- 24, July 31, 2012).