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México. -
With the elections legislatives and carried out local (06/07/15), in
passed days a period of electoral campaigns characterized by the degradation
in the forms of making political culminated, the neglect of the laws of most
of the litigants -parties and candidates - and an authority in the matter,
the Electoral National Institute (INE, for their initials in Spanish) that
opened in the worst possible way: transformed from their birth into hostage of
the settlements among remiss parties in the observance and the execution of
the legal and unable picture of making be worth their condition of referee of
the political fight. Their weaknesses, to make matters worse, they were
seconded and deepened by the Electoral Tribunal of the Judicial Power of the
Federation (TEPJF, for their initials in Spanish), which subtracted to the
resolutions of the organism that Lorenzo Cordova presides over the scarce
force that they could have of origin and he left them reduced to almost
symbolic positioning. Apart from this the process of renovation legislative
and of the third part of the respective city councils it was contaminated by
the violence that affects to the country and it leave a balance of more of a
dozen of candidates, groups and murdered militants and several wounded in
confrontations. Additionally, the institutional decomposition in course and
the growing divorce between the formal Mexico and the social Mexico derived
in an accented civic skepticism that was translated in calls to the
abstention and the annulment, as long as the crisis of credibility made worse
by the events of Iguala of passed September it arrived until intents that
derived in disturbances of diverse magnitude in Oaxaca, Chiapas, and Guerrero's
towns.
The PRI and the PVEM, their accomplice of conservative right
The PRI with its ally, the Green (PVEM),
would obtain most simple in San Lazaro building of being summed up the best
in the scenarios that they come off of the results of the quick count carried
out by the INE, when being projected for the first 203 federal deputies and
the second 48, to add 251 legislators. Of the majority parties, the more hit
in this election it is that is to say the PRD that reaches between 51 and 60
deputies, half of the current ones and a bigger setback with regard to the 71
of 2009. Their voting oscillates between 11.14 and 11.81 percent. When
informing on the tendencies of the voting, Lorenzo Cordova informed that the
dear percentage of voters' participation was of 47.25 and 48.51 percent. Of
being confirmed this affluence of citizens to the polling-booths, it would
almost improve four points to the one reached in 2009. The PAN aspires to
stay as second force in the House of Deputies, with 22.22 voting percent in
the estimated one more favorable and when having, between 105 and 116
deputies, in front of the 114 of the present time. Of the parties of new
creation and after the division of the left-wing, Morena doesn't only tie the
registration, but she reaches to be the best recruit located in San Lazaro
building when obtaining between 34 and 40 positions. At the moment, for the
detachment of a group of legislators of their respective parliamentary groups
it is represented by 12. The green party, the more fined by their reiterated
illegal declared campaign in many of their practices, it stays as fourth
force politics, but very disputed with Morena, since the Green hardly gets
eight deputies more than the new left party.
For separate the PRI won't be able to
approve laws, but with the Green in the House of Deputies gives bigger
governability margin to the power to take out legal reformations ahead.
However, if the less optimistic scenario is corroborated, it would not have
most simple, because it would count just by 237 legislators, with what would
even register a slight setback with the current conformation. Another that is
able to assure their presence in the political map is the PES that is
associated with Christian movements in their moment, with a voting of between
3.4 and 3.61 percent. Therefore, it would reach between 8 and 10 delegations;
the PT could reach between 3 and 12 seats in San Lazaro building. The one
that gets a higher number will depend that it maintains or not the
registration, that that practically it is related with the margin of error of
this study, since it has between 2.78 and 3.02 hundred. These elections were
the first ones in that 22 independent candidates participated; only one could
arrive to the House of Deputies. The force that had premiere and farewell in
this election is the Humanist Party (PH) that reaches less than 3 percent and
therefore, in the most flattering situation, it could achieve a position of
relative majority. This of a total of 10 parties that they were in the
political career. All of extraction of conservative right and only four of
origin left-wing.
They make a pact against Mexico
Of the ten national parties they are guided
to the loss of their registration, the Party of the Work (PT, for their
initials in Spanish) and the PH, all time that they would not reach 3 percent
of the voting, legal requirement to continue in this position. For this fight
they participated Humanist Party for the first time (PH, for their initials
in Spanish), the Party Social Encounter (PES, for their initials in Spanish),
and Morena, this last one will conserve without problem their registration
due to the voting range (9.15%), and even a forecast of seats in San Lazaro
building. The PT was founded in 1990; one year later contended for the first
time, but it could not maintain its registration the minimum required by the
law it was of 1.5 percent of the total of votes, and in 1992 it recovered it
then for a resolution of the Electoral Federal Institute (IFE, for their
initials in Spanish). This last party took force in the presidential election
of 1994, when postulating as its candidate to Cecilia Soto; from their
creation the party has participated in six national fights. This political
force is directed by Alberto Anaya and he has only made partial coalitions
with the PRD.
And what to be the PH refers, of recent
creation; their leadership is in conflict between Javier Lopez and Ignacio
Irys Salomon. This new party obtained, between 2.2 and 2.31 percent of the
votes to national scale, and therefore, it is projected a participation in
deputies of between “zero and one". The third party of recent creation
is the Party Social Encounter (PES), which obtained between 3.44 and 3.61
percent of the votes, with what would have between 8 and 10 positions in San
Lazaro building. The civic participation would be of between 47.25 and 48.51
percent and there would be in the following legislature an independent
deputy.
In sum one has that the political
reformation made a pact by the majority forces and promulgated to beginnings
of last year it has failed in their first test. The novelty of independent
candidacies made water in the last elections even, if it is considered with
the remarkable exception of Nuevo Leon where the preliminary results gave the
victory to an applicant to governor registered with that figure without party,
those “without party” candidates didn't add on the whole, not even one
percent of the votes. At least 20 percent of the computed records was
difficult to trace clear lines between winners and losers: in accordance with
those initial numbers the PRI would lose an important flow of votes
legislatives but it would win most of the governors in game, the other two
original signatories of 'They make a pact against Mexico', PAN-PRI, and PRD,
they would also go back, in moderate form the first one and in free fall the
second, dull for the corruption in the political scenario of Morena, the one
which, according to the tendencies sketched in the Preliminary programs of
(the federal one and of the capital one), it could dispute it the third place
like national political force, it would be located in first in the Assemble
Legislative of the Federal District, to expense of the PRD, several
delegations of the Mexico City. (La Jornada, politica, p.p.4- 6, June 8,
2015).
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